政策决策过程的社会稳定风险识别研究

中国面临着不断升级的社会性冲突风险,而政策决策和行为成为冲突风险的主要来源.政策从制定到实施都是一个利益分配和协调的过程,这个过程非常复杂和困难,一旦出现不协调和不平衡现象,就会出现风险.显然,识别政策决策过程的风险至关重要.构建社会稳定风险识别模型,并通过实际案例分析阐释利益群体引发风险的行动逻辑,将有助于决策主体在决策过程中围绕利益群体的价值观、决策属性、决策资源、执行制度进行风险识别,不断提高决策质量.

Study on risk identification of social stability in the process of policy decision-making:An empirical analysis based on several cases

China facing the risk of escalating social conflict, policy decision-making becomes the main source of conflicts. Policy from formulation to implementation is a process of interests distribution and coordination which is very complex and difficult. Once interests have imbalances and disharmony, risks arise. It is important to identify risks in the process of policy decision-making. The identification model of social stability risk was constructed and in terms of the model cases were used to explain action logic of risks raised by interest groups. Based on the analysis, policy decision-maker can focus on interest groups'' values, decision attribute, decision resources, and implementation system to identify risks, which helps improve the quality of decision-making.