统计分析与预测——官方统计不可或缺的重要功能

官方统计机构是否应该从事统计分析与预测工作?如果是,应该怎样从事这项工作?这是一些尚存争议的老问题。从不同视角看此问题,会提出不同的观点。但理论分析和一些国家官方统计机构多年来的实践表明,从事统计分析与预测应该是官方统计机构不可或缺的重要功能,只要能遵循适当的原则,扬长避短,应大胆为之,且大有可为。在经济学日益朝着用数学表达内容和统计定量的方向发展的时代,官方统计机构从事统计分析与预测工作已是势在必然。一、传统认识的局限性所谓统计分析,就是以根据科学的方法收集到的统计数据信息为基础,运用统计学和与被研究对象…

Statistical Analysis and Forecast:A Necessary Important Function of Official Statistics

If Official Statistics Agencies(Referring to as OSA below) should undertake statistical analysis and forecast, and how to carry it out! This is a long-standing controversial issue. However, theoretical studies and OSA statistical practice in some countries over the years have all indicated that it is an indispensable function for OSA to undertake statistical analysis and forecast, that it is something well worth doing and doing it with bold measures, provided that it is guided by appropriate principles, exploiting advantages and avoiding weakness. It is an inevitable trend for OSA to undertake statistical analysis and forecast in the era when ideas of economics are increasingly finding their expression in the form statistical quantification and mathematics formulas.