Population viability assessment and sensitivity analysis as a management tool for the peri-urban environment

Anthropogenic disturbance occurring within urban ecosystems is often extreme and highly variable. A quantifiable measure of their effect on the persistence of urban wildlife populations would contribute to conservation efforts. This study suggests that population viability assessment, a commonly utilized modeling tool for creating management strategies for rare and threatened wildlife populations, is also appropriate in an urban context. It can be used to create proactive management strategies that quantify the impacts of anthropogenic disturbances and rank a range of management options within an active adaptive framework. To show this, population viability assessment and sensitivity analyses were run to forecast the population trends of a seemingly robust but isolated swamp wallaby (Wallabia bicolor) population living in peri-urban Sydney, Australia; a population exposed to anthropogenic disturbances from towns, hobby farms and roads. Modeling suggested this population was in a slow decline and that predictions were highly dependent upon stochastic events and the precision of reproduction rates. However, a number of management options are identified that will dramatically reduce the risk of total population decline, with complementary options utilized in tandem the most effective.