FORECASTING VOLATILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEL INSTABILITY |
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| Authors: | John M Maheu Jonathan J Reeves Xuan Xie |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Economics, 150 St George Street, University of Toronto, Canada, M5S 3G7.;2. Banking and Finance, Australian School of Business, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia.e‐mail:;3. Banking and Finance, Australian School of Business, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia. |
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| Abstract: | Recent advances in financial econometrics have allowed for the construction of efficient ex post measures of daily volatility. This paper investigates the importance of instability in models of realised volatility and their corresponding forecasts. Testing for model instability is conducted with a subsampling method. We show that removing structurally unstable data of a short duration has a negligible impact on the accuracy of conditional mean forecasts of volatility. In contrast, it does provide a substantial improvement in a model's forecast density of volatility. In addition, the forecasting performance improves, often dramatically, when we evaluate models on structurally stable data. |
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| Keywords: | high‐frequency data integrated volatility realised volatility |
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