改革开放以来中国国际收支的变迁及启示

1982—2007年中国国际收支平衡表体现了改革开放以来我国国际收支的变化呈交易总规模阶段性加速增长、国际收支出现持续双顺差、误差和遗漏项目发生逆转等特征。从储蓄投资缺口、国际产业转移、跨境资本投机和非均衡外汇管制等角度对国际收支的变迁进行了理论解释。短期内“双松一稳”政策可以避免国际收支急剧收缩对经济的巨大冲击，但在长期应实行大国经济发展战略，加快经济向由内需特别是消费需求驱动的发展方式转型，实现国际收支的基本平衡。

Changes of China International Payment since Reform and Opening up and the Inspiration

Through studying the table of China international balance of payment from 1982 to 2007, it was found that change of Chinese international payment balance takes on such characteristics as the transaction scale growing with gradual acceleration, the payment being in continuous double favorable balance, error and omission projects having been reversed. The paper has given theoretical explanation to changes of the international payment balance from the perspective of deposit investment gap, international industrial transfer, cross-border capital venture and unbalanced exchange control. It comes to conclusion that the ＂Two Loose and One Steady＂ policy may avoid the huge impact of dramatic shrinkage of international payment on the economy in a short time. In the long run, China should implement the strategy of economic development for the big power and speed up the transition of mode of development driven by domestic demand, especially, consumption needs so as to fulfill the basic balance of the international payment.