出口导向、浮动恐惧与全球经济失衡

在国际收支货币分析方法的基础上，推导一个主权货币作为国际储备货币条件下全球经济失衡的模型，从出口导向、浮动恐惧、国际美元储备和美元环流角度对全球经济失衡进行分析。把全球的国家分为储备货币国和非储备货币国。由于存在“浮动恐惧”，非储备货币国对储备货币国往往采用事实上的固定汇率制。非储备货币国如果希望通过出口导向战略来促进经济增长，则需要以非储备货币国国内信用创造或国际储备不断增长为条件。在经历了20世纪80年代后多次金融危机，越来越多的国家不再采用国内信用创造增长的方式而采用积累国际储备的方式来促进经济增长，这导致了非储备货币国的国际储备越来越多。同时，根据储备货币国家和非储备货币国家的对应关系，储备货币国的经常账户会产生逆差。非储备货币国家的国际储备又通过资本和金融账户流回到储备货币国，储备货币国产生了大量的对外负债。这种情况的持续导致了全球经济失衡。

Export-Oriented Strategy, Fear of Floating and Global Imbalances

Based on the monetary approach to balance of payments theory, this paper deduces a model of global imbalances under the condition that a sovereign currency acts as the international reserve currency. This model analyzes global imbalances from the aspect of export-oriented strategy, fear of floating, international dollar reserves and dollar circumfluence. This model hopes to explain the phenomenon that global imbalances begin to be aggravated from the early of 1990s although the demand of rest of world for dollars has always been there. This article divides the countries around the world into the reserve currency countries and the non-reserve currency countries. Due to the fear of floating, the non-reserve currency countries tend to adopt the actually fixed exchange rate to the reserve currency countries. In this situation, if the non-reserve currency countries hope to promote economic growth through export-oriented strategy, the condition would be that credits or international reserves grow continuously in the non-reserve currency countries. After the several financial crises during the 1980s, more and more countries are no longer taking the method of increasing domestic credit and adopt the way of accumulation of international reserves to boost economic growth, and this led to the more and more amounts of international reserves in the non-reserve currency countries. At the same time, according to relationship of correspondence between the reserve currency countries and the non-reserve currency countries, the reserve currency countries will produce current account deficit. The international reserves in the non-reserve currency countries flow back to the reserve currency countries through the capital and financial account, thus the reserve currency countries gradually accumulate a large number of foreign debts. This situation runs continuously and global imbalances are aggravated.