2014年国际原油市场分析与价格预测

在回顾2013年国际原油市场的发展动态的基础上，综合分析2014年全球宏观经济的复苏态势，国际原油市场供需基本面因素的变化，以及美元汇率、投机炒作、地缘政治等非基本面因素的走向及其可能对油价的冲击。结合国际原油市场形势和定量模型预测结果，预计2014年WTI、Brent原油现货价格将相对稳定，分别达到97～101美元/桶、111～117美元/桶。国际油价面临各种不确定性，预计2014年国际油价的长期走势主要取决于全球经济复苏的步伐，短期波动更多取决于美联储退出宽松政策的速度和节奏。

International Crude Oil Market Analyses and Price Forecast in 2014

This paper reviews the dynamics in international crude oil market in 2013 and then comprehensively analyzes global economic recovery process, the supply-demand fundamental situation and some non-fundamental drivers, including US dollar exchange rate, speculation and geopolitics, as well as their effects on oil price. In the end, based on the future market dynamics and the quantitative forecast results, we project that the WTI and Brent crude oil prices may keep relatively stable, reaching 97-101 and 111-117 USD/barrel on average in 2014 respectively. Oil price also faces various uncertainties, and we hold that the long-term trend of oil price in 2014 may mainly be determined by global economic recovery process while the short-term changes will be affected more by the quantitative easing monetary policy of US Federal Reserve.