Pensionsverpflichtungen: Ansammlungs- und Gleichverteilungsverfahren und die Prognose von Residualgewinnen

Assuming an infinite forecast horizon, residual earnings valuations provide in theory identical results independent of the accounting methods used. In practice however there is used a detailed planning period, covering a few years, after which simple growth models are applied. How suitable residual earnings are for the use in such a simple growth model, is substantially dependent on the nature of the accounting. Thereby the accounting obtains an impact on the valuation and accordingly on the length of the detailed planning period, necessary for an accurate valuation. In this paper these contexts are analyzed using the example of pension obligations. The amount of the pension obligations and the resulting residual earnings are substantially affected by the distribution method used. Concerning the two most important distribution methods, the projected unit credit and the projected benefit valuation method, it is analyzed in which way these methods respond to changes of the value structure-i. e. a modification of the amount of the pension-and to changes of the quantity structure-i. e. a modification of the number of employees within the pension plan. In particular it is examined which period of time both methods need-after a surprising change of the value or quantity structure-to generate residual earnings, which allow a valuation of the pension obligations with a simple growth model.