中国两代流动人口子女随迁决策的比较研究

新生代流动人口已成为我国流动人口的主力军,且新、老两代流动人口已呈现出明显的代际分化和差异。为探究我国新、老两代流动人口在子女随迁决策过程中是否存在差异、差异如何以及具体的差异机制,文章使用2013年"流动人口动态监测八城市"数据以及二分Logit回归模型对我国流动人口子女随迁决策的代际差异进行对比研究。研究发现新生代流动人口比老一代流动人口安排其3-12岁子女随迁的可能性低,且新、老两代流动人口的3-12岁子女随迁决策过程确实存在差异。二者差异主要体现在"子女年龄"、"家庭本地月收入"、"流动范围"以及"流入地社会资本"这四个因素上。分析二者差异机制的交互模型结果显示,控制其他因素的影响后,随着"家庭本地月收入"和"儿童年龄"的增加,新生代流动人口安排其子女(3-12岁)随迁的可能性均高于老一代流动人口子女随迁的可能性。由于新生代流动人口安排子女随迁的比例相对降低将会产生更多的留守儿童。因此,新生代流动人口随迁子女比例降低的深层次原因需要深入研究。各流入地城市应准确把握本区域内流动人口年龄结构,了解本区域内不同代际流动人口的困难和诉求,制定有的放矢、与时俱进的流动人口福利保障政策和制度。此外,新生代流动人口占比较大的城市应积极增加有关教育设施,制定并完善随迁子女教育保障制度。

A Comparative Study of Parental Migration Decision for Children of Two Generations of Floating Population in China

The new generation of floating population has become the main force of China’s floating popula?tion,and the new and old generations of the floating population have shown differences among several di?mensions. Using data from"the 2013 China Dynamic Monitoring Survey of Floating Population",we exam?ine differences of parental migration decision making process for children between the old and new floating population generations in China. We focus on children ages 3-12. We find that the new generation of the floating population is less likely than the old generation to take their children to join them in migrant desti?nations. These differences are mainly reflected in four factors:"child’s age","family monthly income in destination cities","migration distance"and"social capital in destination cities". Results from models with interaction terms show that,when"family monthly income in destination cities"and"children’s age"increase,the new generation of floating population is more likely to arrange their children(3-12 years old)to migrate with them than the old generation after controlling for other factors. Finally,we argue that the de?creased probability of taking children to migrant destinations among the new generation of the floating popu?lation is likely to lead to creation of more left-behind children. Therefore,this problem deserves further ex?ploration. Moreover,cities with large numbers of floating population would do best to understand the age composition of the floating population in its region and to provide educational infrastructure and improve ed?ucation system.