改革开放40年中国家庭发展能力变化研究

家庭作为最基本的社会单位,其发展能力决定了社会整体发展能力水平的高低,家庭发展能力测度是制定家庭发展政策的科学前提。文章构建家庭发展能力指标体系,运用基于主成分分析法的耦合分析方法对中国家庭发展能力进行测度,通过主成分分析确定家庭发展系统各指标权重,得出各子系统的发展指数权重。分析结果显示:改革开放40年以来中国家庭发展能力的综合指数经历了稳步上升的过程,与此同时也存在家庭发展内部结构的不平衡性。家庭经济、家庭人口再生产和家庭生活发展三个子系统在发展过程中表现出较大的差异,家庭经济和家庭生活发展能力持续提升,家庭人口再生产能力逐年下降,使得家庭发展能力三个子系统协调度先升后降,家庭人口再生产能力的下降影响了中国家庭发展能力。中国家庭发展能力三个子系统耦合度不断提升表明各子系统之间的相互作用影响力加强,未来国家应着重加强家庭人口再生产能力建设,在教育、医疗、养老及税收等各方面给予家庭更多的精准扶持,改善家庭发展能力内部不平衡性,促进各子系统协调发展从而使中国家庭发展能力持续稳定提升。

Research on the Change of Chinese Family Development Capability in the Past 40 Years of Reform and Opening-up

The family is basic unit of society,and its development ability determines the level of the overall social development ability. The measurement of family development ability is the scientific premise for the formulation of family development policies. This paper constructs the index system of family development ability,measures the family development ability in China,and applies the coupling analysis method based on principal component analysis. The development index weight of each subsystem is obtained through principal component analysis,which makes up for the defect of subjective assignment of first-level index in most coupling methods,and makes the coupling degree analysis more objective and reasonable. The result shows that the comprehensive index of Chinese family’s development ability has been rising steadily since the reform and opening up 40 years ago. At the same time,there is also an imbalance in the internal struc? ture of family development. The three subsystems of family economy,Population reproduction development and life development show great differences in the development process:the development ability of family economy and life continues to improve,while the ability of family Population reproduction development gradually decreases. The coordination degree of the three sub-systems of family development ability rises first and then falls,and the family Population reproduction development ability becomes the weak board that affects the family development ability of China. The increasing coupling degree of the three subsystems of Chinese family development capability indicates that the interaction influence among the subsystems is strengthened. In the future,the country should focus on strengthening the reproduction capacity of the family,give more precise support to the family itself in education,medical care,old-age care,tax and other as? pects,improve the internal imbalance of the family development ability,and promote the coordinated devel? opment of various subsystems so as to continuously and steadily improve the development ability of the Chinese family.