女性受教育程度与婚配模式对二孩生育意愿的影响

在人口转变过程中,女性受教育程度的提升往往被认为是促进生育率下降的因素之一,但是在后人口转变时期,许多针对发达国家的研究发现女性的受教育程度与生育水平呈现正相关的关系。本文使用2010年、2012年和2013年中国综合社会调查数据,分析和比较中国女性的二孩生育意愿在不同受教育程度和不同教育婚配模式下的差异。结果显示在不考虑政策限制的情况下,受教育程度较高或较低的女性的二孩生育意愿更高,即便考虑了女性的收入水平后这一关系依然显著。研究发现在考虑夫妇的相对特征后,相比受教育程度均为初中的夫妇,夫妇受教育程度均较高或较低的女性的二孩生育意愿更高。文章使用生育的性别公平理论对生育意愿在女性受教育程度及婚配模式上的这一U型变化模式进行解释。生育行为不仅与经济水平或夫妻间的相对经济实力相关,还会受到性别观念的影响,更加平等的性别观念与性别关系有利于促进生育意愿的提升。政府应推广具有普惠性质的托育支持体系,促进女性就业和性别平等,使生育率维持在稳定水平。

Fertility Intentions for a Second Child in China:Female Educational Attainment and Assortative Marriage

Female educational expansion has long been considered as one of the contributors to demograph?ic transition. However,during post-demographic transition period,women’s educational attainment is found to be positively associated with fertility in many developed societies. This article uses three-wave da?ta from Chinese General Social Survey to analyze the distribution of fertility intentions for a second child across women’s educational levels and assortative marriages. The results suggest that,compared to those only finishing middle school,the fertility intention is higher for women with bachelor credential or at most primary school education. The results are robust even after controlling for women’s position in the income distribution. The dyadic anslysis also suggests that wives from the couples who are both least or most educat?ed tend to have higher fertility intentions. The gender equity theory regarding fertility provides explanations for this U-shaped pattern. Policy implications are also discussed. The government should promote a univer?sal childcare system to ensure women’s employment and gender equality, so that the fertility rate will be maintained at a stable level.