中国高校扩招对城乡青年人口迁移的影响

我国高校扩招带动了大批青年进行跨城乡、跨区域的人口迁移,大学生群体成为仅次于农民工群体的第二大迁移人群。高校扩招为青年人口迁移提供了机会,通过接受高等教育以提高向上社会流动率是引发人口迁移的主要内在驱动力,而教育的投入成本与教育回报率是教育投资的关键因素。文章基于人口迁移与高校扩招之间存在的概率关系,利用我国省市级城乡教育数据和家庭收入调查数据(CHIP),建立概率迁移模型,分析城乡居民教育水平差异与城乡教育回报率差异对人口迁移的影响。实证结果表明高校扩招明显提高了农业户口居民和非农户口居民的教育水平,对非农户口居民的影响更大;高校扩招对农村地区高等学历人才数量没有显著影响,但对城市则有明显影响。即高校扩招使得更多来自农村的大学生迁入城市,这就导致城市的高学历劳动力数量不断上升,而农村更加缺乏高素质人才。因此,应加大新农村产业开发,提升大学生回乡就业和创业率;合理布局高等院校,实现教育资源向三四线城市均衡化发展;提高大学生核心竞争力,加快落实地方人才保障计划。

An Analysis of University Enrollment Expansion in Colleges and Universities on the Migration of Urban and Rural Youth

The expansion of enrollment in colleges and universities in China has led to a large number of young people moving across urban and rural areas and across regions. The university student group has be come the second largest migration group after the migrant workers group. Enrollment expansion provides an opportunity for youth migration. Higher education to increase the upward social mobility rate is the main in ternal driving force for migration. The investment input cost and education return rate are the key to decide whether to invest in education. Based on the probabilistic relationship between population migration and college enrollment expansion, this paper uses urban and rural education and household income survey data (C HIP) to establish a probability migration model to analyze the impact of urban and rural residents’ edu cation level differences and urban-rural education returns on migration. The empirical results show that the expansion of enrollment has significantly improved the education level of residents, and has a greater im pact on non-agricultural households;enrollment has no significant impact on the number of higher educa tion personnel in rural areas, but has a significant impact on cities. That is to say, the expansion of enroll ment has enabled more university students from rural areas to move into the city, which leads to the city’ s highly educated workforce will continue to rise, while the rural areas are even more lacking in high-quality talent. Therefore, the government should increase the development of new rural industries, improve the en trepreneurship rate of college students returning to their hometowns;rationally arrange higher education in stitutions, realize the balanced development of educational resources to third- and fourth-tier cities;im prove the core competitiveness of college students and accelerate the implementation of local talent protec tion plans.