人口发展转向背景下中国人口学研究的重点领域及其展望

人口问题是新时代中国社会经济发展必须面对的基础性、全局性和战略性问题。近年来,随着社会经济的发展及人口政策的调整,中国人口发展发生重大转向,主要体现在四个方面:人口红利走向下行、老龄化不断加剧、生育水平持续降低和城镇化水平明显提高。全面与及时把握新时代人口发展转向背景下中国人口学研究的新动向、新特点与新走向,对战略、前瞻、有效应对国家人口趋势性变化及其对经济社会发展产生的深刻影响至关重要。本文通过检索并分析文献数据库中近年来收录的人口学重要文献,归纳出新时代我国人口学关注的核心议题为人口红利、老龄化、生育水平和新型城镇化,并对各核心议题的重点研究方向进行了详述。通过明确目前人口发展转向背景及人口学研究的核心议题,预计未来人口学研究主要关注以下六个方面:新时代中国特色人口理论体系的建构、人口红利的变化新特点及其轨迹、跨学科视角下的老龄研究及其顶层制度设计、生育政策调整与完善的走向及其配套措施、新型城镇化的质量及其内在动力以及人口分析技术方法的拓展和创新。在人口发展发生明显转向的新形势下,未来人口学研究将对社会经济发展过程中出现的人口问题予以持续的关注,从而促进我国人口长期均衡发展。

The Research Priorities and Prospects of Population Studies in China under the Background of Population Development Shift

Population problem is a fundamental, overall and strategic issue that China must face in the new era. In recent years, with the development of social economy and the adjustment of population policy, China' s population development has undergone a major transformation, showing obvious characteristics of transformation, which mainly reflected four prominent features: The downward trend of demographic divi? dend, increasing aging, continuous decrease of fertility level and obvious improvement of urbanization level. A comprehensive and timely grasp of the trends and characteristics of China' s demography under the background of the demographic development in the new era is crucial to the response to the country' s demographic trend changes and its profound impact on economic and social development. By searching and ana? lyzing the important literatures on demography collected in the literature database in recent years, this paper concludes that the core issues concerned by demography in China in the new era are demographic dividend, aging, fertility level and new-type urbanization, and then details the key research directions of each core issue. By defining the population development background and the core issues of demographic research, the future demographic research might focus on the following six topics. First, the construction of the population theory system with Chinese characteristics;Second, the characteristics and trajectory of demographic dividend;Third, the interdisciplinary perspective of aging and the top-level design system;Fourth, the adjustment and supporting measures of fertility policy;Fifth, the quality and intrinsic motivation of the new type of urbanization;Finally, the analysis method of population expansion and innovation. Under the new situation of the population development, the future demographic research will continue to pay attention to the population problems in the process of social and economic development for promoting the long-term balanced development of China' s population.