中国普惠金融对农村贫困人口的减贫效应研究

消除贫困是当前各国政府面临的重大难题之一。文章基于我国普惠金融发展指数(IFI)构建了一个普惠金融减缓农村贫困人口贫困的理论框架,采用我国30个省市(西藏除外)2010-2016年面板数据实证检验了我国普惠金融对农村贫困人口的减贫效应。研究表明2010-2016年我国普惠金融发展水平不高,但呈上升趋势。此外,我国普惠金融发展存在空间收敛趋势,东部地区普惠金融发展水平整体高于中西部地区,但中西部地区普惠金融发展速度要快于东部地区。实证检验得出我国普惠金融具有显著的农村贫困人口减贫效应,呈现出先减小后扩大的U型特征,我国普惠金融针对农村贫困人口减贫作用存在某一拐点值,在普惠金融发展水平达到拐点值后,减贫效应不断增强。在控制变量中,政府对经济干预、人力资本与交通基础设施都具有减贫效应,而过大的城乡收入差距对减缓农村贫困人口贫困不利。进一步分析发现我国普惠金融对农村贫困人口的减贫效应也存在较强的空间异质性,中西部地区的普惠金融减贫效果要优于东部地区。中西部地区政府对经济干预将有效降低农村贫困发生率,但东部地区政府经济干预对减缓农村贫困人口贫困的作用不显著。但两大地区的人力资本水平、交通基础设施、城乡收入差距的减贫效应实证结果与全国样本相一致。

Empirical Analysis of the Rural Poverty Reduction Effect of Inclusive Finance in China

The eradication of poverty is one of the major problems faced by governments. Based on China’s inclusive finance development index(IFI),this paper constructs a theoretical framework of inclusive fi?nance in alleviating rural poverty. The panel data of 30 provinces and cities(except Tibet)from 2010 to2016 were used to empirically test the poverty reduction effect of inclusive finance in China. The research shows that the level of inclusive finance in China from 2010 to 2016 is not high,but it is on the rise. In addi?tion,there is strong spatial heterogeneity in the development of inclusive finance in China. The develop?ment level of inclusive finance in the eastern region is higher than that in the central and western regions,however,the development of inclusive finance in the central and western regions is faster than that in the eastern regions,the development of inclusive finance in the two regions has a certain convergence effect.The empirical test shows that inclusive finance in China has a significant positive effect on the alleviation of rural poverty,and shows a u-shaped feature of first reduction and then expansion. It indicates that there is an inflection point value of the role of inclusive finance in rural poverty reduction in China,after the devel?opment level of inclusive finance reached an inflection point,its role in poverty reduction was continuously enhanced. Among the control variables,government has a poverty reduction effect on economic interven?tion,human capital and transportation infrastructure,while a large urban-rural income gap is unfavorable to the alleviation of rural poverty. Further analysis shows that the effect of inclusive finance and poverty re?duction in China also has strong spatial heterogeneity,and the effect of inclusive finance and poverty reduc?tion in the central and western regions is better than that in the eastern regions. Economic intervention in the central and western regions will effectively reduce the incidence of rural poverty,but the economic inter?vention of the eastern region has no positive effect on rural poverty alleviation. However,the empirical re?sults of rural poverty reduction effect of human capital level,transportation infrastructure and urban-rural income gap in the two regions are consistent with the national sample. Finally,based on the above research conclusions,the policy recommendations for further enhancing the poverty alleviation effect of China’s in?clusive finance are given.