中国上市公司融资结构的宏观因素分析

本文在总结国内外有关文献的基础上,从宏观和动态的角度出发,对中国上市公司融资结构的宏观经济影响因素进行了实证研究,发现资产负债率与通货膨胀水平、实际利率之间存在协整关系,说明中国上市公司的负债水平与宏观经济因素之间的关系并不是虚假回归关系,而是一种长期的均衡关系。在此基础上,笔者采用向量自回归VAR计量模型对它们之间的关系进行了动态分析,结果表明,通货膨胀率的正向冲击会给中国上市公司的负债水平带来同方向的变动,而实际利率的正向冲击则会降低其负债水平,且这些宏观经济指标的变动对中国上市公司负债水平的影响也会因行业的不同而呈现显著差异。

Analysis of Macro Factors Affecting Financial Structure of Chinese Listed Companies

On the basis of summarizing the relevant literature and material home and abroad,the paper conducted empirical research of macro economic factors affecting financing structure of Chinese listed companies from macro and dynamic perspective. It found that there was cointegration relation among asset-liability ratio of Chinese listed companies,inflation rate and real interest rate,which indicated that the relation between asset-liability ratio of Chinese listed companies and macro-economic factors was not spurious regression,but a long-term equilibrium one A VAR econometric model was established based on the above result to make dynamic analysis. The result showed that the positive impact of inflation would affect debtratio of Chinese listed companies in the same way. While the positive impact of real interest rate would lower its debt level,and the change of macro-economic indexes had obviously differentimpact on debt level of Chinese listed companies as the industries were different.