越南经济金融状况分析及展望

2008年是越南经济动荡的一年。通货膨胀和贸易赤字激增,随后发生逆转;经济增长放缓,预计2009年将进一步缓和,2010年将开始回升。预计这两年通货膨胀将相对较低,经常账户赤字预计在2009年有所扩大而在2010年将缩小。主要的短期挑战来自于限制经济增长减缓的同时,保持财政和经常账户赤字处于可控之中。从中期来看,政府需在加速推动增长同时又不能引发通货膨胀和使经常账户赤字扩大。

Analysis and Prospect on Vietnam Economy and Finance

The economy of Vietnam had a turbulent year in 2008. Inflation and the trade deficit surged, and then reversed course. Economic growth slowed and forecasted to moderate further this year, before starting to pick up in 2010. Inflation is projected to be relatively low both years. The current account deficit is expected to widen in 2009 and narrow in 2010. The main near-term challenge is to limit the slowdown in growth while keeping the finance l and current account deficits in check. In the medium term, the Government needs to ratchet up growth without fueling inflation or widening the current account deficit.