基于变参数模型的中国煤炭消费与经济增长关系研究

进入21世纪以来，随着全球经济的复苏和高速发展，能源问题日益引起各国学者的重视。为了研究中国煤炭消费与经济增长的关系，本文根据1978—2005年的统计数据，建立了中国煤炭消费与经济增长的变参数模型，并对其进行了协整检验。研究发现．中国煤炭消费与经济增长之间存在一种随时间变化的长期均衡关系，模型的估计结果较好地揭示了中国煤炭消费弹性的时变规律。通过分析得出，降低煤炭消费弹性的关键在于加快产业结构调整，减少高耗煤产业的比重；发挥市场机制配置资源的基础性作用．提高煤炭利用效率。

Study on the Relationship between Chinese Coal Consumption and Economic Growth Based on Variable Parameter Model

Since the 21st century, with the recovery and the rapid development of the global economy, the energy issue has evoked great attention for the scholars of every country. In order to study the relatignship between the national coal consumption and the economic growth, this thesis establishes a variable parameter model for coal consumption and the economic growth and has a co-integration test, based on the statistical data of 1978 - 2005. Studies find that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the Ghinese coal consumption and economic growth with time changing, the estimate results of which reveal a time-changing law of Chinese coal consumption flexibility. Through the analysis,it conclude that the key for reducing the coal consumption flexibility is to speed up the industrial construction adjustment, reduce the proportion of high coal consumption industries, make full use of the basic resources allocation role of the market mechanism and raise coal using efficiency.