老龄化是否影响我国农业生产？--基于三大粮食品种的观察

本文基于全国农村固定观察点的农户数据，统计分析了当前我国农业劳动力年龄的分布情况，比较了老年农户和中青年农户在农业劳动时间、农业经营规模和粮食产量等方面的差异。研究表明，老年农业劳动时间占家庭农业总劳动时间的比例呈平稳上升趋势。老年农户经营规模化程度低于中青年农户，户均粮食产量和粮食播种面积逐渐接近并超过中青年农户。老年农户的优势品种为水稻，中青年农户为玉米。从现有观察结果来看，老龄化暂时没有表现出对粮食生产的负效应。

Does Aging Impact China’s Agricultural Production?--Observations Based on Wheat,Rice and Corn

Based on the survey data of fixed rural observation points in China,this paper analyses current age distribution of agricultural labor force,compares the differences in agricultural labor time,agricultural management scale and grain yield between elderly and young farmers. The research shows that the proportion of elderly farmers’working time to total household working time was on the rise. The elderly farmers’management scale was lower than young farmers’,but elderly farmers’average grain yield and grain sown area were gradually approaching or over the young farmers’. The elderly farm?ers were good at rice production,while young farmers had comparative advantage in corn yield. For the current survey re?sults,aging did not show a negative effect on agricultural production temporarily.