“二孩”生育政策的经济效应分析--供给与需求的视角

供给面看,实施“二孩”政策会直接扩大人口规模、增加未来劳动力供给,短期引起家庭储蓄水平降低;而长期则会对宏观储蓄水平产生积极作用,且年轻的人口结构有利于我国创新能力的提高。需求面看,全面放开“二孩”会对消费产生拉动作用,但因住房支出的挤压,效果或许有限;投资会加速,但却可能加剧其与消费的比例失衡;人口变动一定程度上会延长我国基于人口红利的出口比较优势。

The Economic Effect Analysis of Two-child Policy:The Perspective of Supply and Demand

On the supply side,the implementation of Two-child policy will directly expand the scale of population and increase future workforce and lead to lower household savings in the short-term. It will produce active effect to the macro level of savings in the long run. Besides,the younger population structure is conducive to improve the in?novation ability in our country. On the demand side,universal Two-child can produce stimulating effect on con?sumption. However,due to the extrusion of housing expenditure,the effect may be limited;investment will be accel?erated,which may aggravate the imbalance between investment and consumption;The variation in population will extend the duration of export comparative advantage on a certain degree which based on demographic dividend.