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主权债务问题和国际货币体系变化的新趋势
引用本文:陆前进. 主权债务问题和国际货币体系变化的新趋势[J]. 社会科学, 2012, 0(1): 39-46
作者姓名:陆前进
作者单位:复旦大学国际金融系
基金项目:国家自然科学基金“人民币实际有效汇率和参考一篮子货币最优权重的选取”(项目编号:71173042);国家社科基金重大项目“重构国际金融治理体系——亚洲的视角和中国的选择”(项目编号:11&ZD018)的阶段性成果
摘    要:国际金融危机以来,主要发达国家面临"高债务和高赤字"问题,财政状况不断恶化,主权债务问题导致主要国际货币大幅度波动,国际货币体系变得更加不稳定。国际金融危机使得美元主导国际货币体系的内在矛盾凸显,美元汇率的剧烈波动对全球经济的冲击较大,改革国际货币体系的呼声越来越高。目前美国财政赤字和债务水平仍然较高,未来美元汇率的不稳定性和不确定性仍然较大,"去美元化"将成为一种趋势,欧元、日元等货币都难以替代美元,国际货币体系的格局将朝多元化方向发展。新兴市场经济国家货币正在崛起,中国应该抓住机遇,稳步推进人民币国际化。

关 键 词:主权债务  国际货币体系  去美元化  人民币国际化

The Sovereign Debt Problem and the New Trend of International Monetary System Change
Lu Qianjin. The Sovereign Debt Problem and the New Trend of International Monetary System Change[J]. Journal of Social Sciences, 2012, 0(1): 39-46
Authors:Lu Qianjin
Abstract:Since the international financial crisis major developed countries are facing "high debt and high deficit" problem,the financial situation continues to deteriorate,sovereign debt problems result in significant fluctuations of major international currencies,international monetary system turns more instable.International financial crisis makes the inner contradictions of the dollar-dominated international monetary system manifest.The dollar exchange rate volatility has large global economic impact,the voice of reforming the international monetary system are very high.Currently the fiscal deficit and debt levels of USA are higher,future volatility and uncertainty of the dollar exchange rate are still larger,"de-dollarization" will become a trend.Euro,and Yen,etc,are hardly to replace US dollar.The setup of the international monetary system is moving toward the diversity,the emerging market currencies are rising up;China should seize the opportunity and promote RMB internationalization steadily.
Keywords:Sovereign Debt  International Monetary System  De-dollarize  RMB Internationalization
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