现代金融学理论的缺陷与解决路径

标准金融学与行为金融学的根本分歧是市场是否具有有效性。作为标准金融学基石的有效市场假说的致命缺陷是检验时点有效,即在任何一个时点上证券价格都即时、准确地反映所有信息,这一理想化的约束条件不仅使该理论的应用价值大打折扣,也使其存在着巨大的理论缺陷。行为金融学正是抓住这一点对其提出了质疑和挑战。在推翻标准金融学的理论假设后的行为金融学也没有建立一个比标准金融学更有实际应用性的学说体系,其应用性甚至远远落后于被其否定的以CAPM、APT、OPT等为代表的标准金融学理论。市场有效周期理论认为,市场有效是一个时期而不是一个时点,通过实证研究可以对该理论进行检验。市场有效周期理论的重要价值主要是在解决标准金融学和行为金融学的分歧上实现了重大突破。

The Deficiency of Modern Financial and Solution Path

Whether the market is effective or not is the fundamental difference between standard finance and behavior finance. A fatal flaw of the EMH (Efficient Market Hypothesis), which is the basis of standard finance, is the validity of certain time point, that is to say stock price reflect all information on time and accurate. The idea condition is not only lower the applications of the theory but also put it in a huge theoretical defects, still, where the behavior finance questioned. There isn’t a theory be built by behavior finance which more practical than standard finance after the behavior finance overthrow the fundamental assumption of standard finance, which practical is far behind the standard finance represented by CAMP, APT and OPT etc. This paper advances the theory of market effective cycle, which seem the market effective is a period rather than a time point, and examining this theory though empirical study. The major value of the theory of market effective cycle is the brilliant breakthrough on resolve the disagreement between standard finance and behavior finance.