深圳流动育龄妇女生育子女数的影响因素分析

本文利用“深圳市龙岗区流动人口计划生育管理与服务状况”调查数据,设计了4个模型,分别从不同角度对生育子女数、初婚初育、初婚二孩生育和初婚三孩生育的影响因素进行了多因素分析。研究结果表明,早婚和多育之间有正相关关系,它和生育意愿有一定的关联。生育意愿对生育行为的影响是非线性的,它对三孩生育的影响最强。经济收入水平对生育行为的影响很复杂,收入水平提高产生的短期效果可能是促进生育率增长。

An Analysis of the Variables Affecting the Number of Children of the Floating Child - bearing Age Women in Shenzhen

Based on the data from a survey of the administration and services of the floating population's family planning in Longgang District, Shenzhen, this paper designs four models to study the number of children, the first child-bearing, the second child bearing and the third chilad bearing from several perspectives. The Results show that early marriage positively correlate to the number of childbearing, for it relates to the child-bearing willing. However, the childbearing willing affects the fertility behaviors non-linearly, and much more stronger on the third child-bearing. On the other hand, economic and income status affect fertility behaviors in a quite complex way, and seems positive to the growth of fertility rate in the short term perspective.