死亡人口受教育水平的预测模型和效果研究——对中国1990～2010年省级面板数据的估计

由于缺乏健全的死亡民事登记和医疗登记制度,中国死亡人口的受教育水平只能获得人口普查年份的数据,非普查年份数据只能用普查年份数据代替,这种替代法在使用中存在诸多不足,构建模型对非普查年数据进行估计是另一种可行的方法。本研究利用经过识别和有效性检验的模型,以社会经济发展水平、人口结构水平、医疗卫生水平和存活人口受教育水平作为解释变量,利用可得资料对1990²010年期间非普查年份数据进行估计,得到更为有效的省级死亡人口受教育水平逐年数据。

A Study on Modeling and Validity for Educational Attainment of Population Mortality

Due to the lack of elaborate civil death registration system and medical registration system,the data of educational attainment of population mortality can only get from census every 10 years,and these data also be used in place of non-census years.The method has bring many disadvantages in practice,so modeling to estimate the data in non-census years is another feasible way.The paper propose a model with four explanatory variables.The model which had passed the identification and test of validity estimate the data of educational attainment of population mortality at province-level during 1990-2010 of China using available information.