农民工回流的选择性与非农就业:来自湖北的证据

近年来,随着东部沿海地区劳动密集型产业逐渐向中西部地区转移,农民工回流已成为社会关注的热点话题。本文利用来自湖北省的农村劳动力调查数据研究农民工的回流原因与返乡非农就业状况。农民工的回流决策不仅要受到其人力资本的影响,也与老人需要赡养、农业负担较重、与家人团聚等家庭因素以及输出地经济的发展程度有关。相对于那些仍然外出的农民工而言,回流农民工往往是负向选择的结果,并没有表现出比从未外出农村劳动力更倾向参与非农就业。因此,农民工回流对输出地经济发展的贡献程度可能并不像大部分研究结果所显示的那么乐观。

The Selectivity of Returning Migrants and Their Off-farm Employment: Micro Evidence from Hubei Province

With the data collected in 2005 concerning rural migrants originated from Hubei Province,we examine the reasons why rural migrants return home and their non-farm employment status after their return.The results show that rural migrants' decision to return home is not only influenced by their human capital,but related to family reasons such as heavy burden of on-farm work,and the desire to unite with other family members,and the development level of source economies. Our results also reveal that returning migrants are generally negatively selected within out-migrants,and there is no significant difference in the incline to engage in off-farm activities between returnees and those staying rural laborers. Therefore,the contribution of return migration to the development of source economies seems not to be as optimistic as many studies have assumed.