人口流动对农村人口老龄化的影响研究——基于“五普”和“六普”数据分析

我国农村人口老龄化程度和提高的速度全面超越了城市,这与当前的人口城市化进程密切相关。人口流动的年龄选择性,使得农村流出人口平均年龄和老年人口比例都远低于农村人口整体水平。流动人口内部在不断地"更新",年轻的流动人口不断替代年老的流动人口,从而保持较年轻的年龄结构,这种人口流动的年龄选择性加速了农村人口老龄化。通过人口老龄化模型的进一步分析发现,在2000～2010年间,农村人口自然老化速度基本保持稳定。而随着农村流动人口的增加,其对农村人口老龄化速度的影响从2000～2005年间的0.031岁/年增加到2006～2010年间的0.07岁/年;农村流出人口对农村人口平均年龄增加的贡献也从8.04%上升到16.91%,人口流动已成为农村人口老龄化的重要推动力。从人口流动的角度,需要关注农村留守老人的照料问题,进一步完善农村社会保障体系以及解决如何让流动人口在城市沉淀下来等问题。

Floating population impact on Rural aging

The aging degree in rural area exceeds urban area in China,which is closely related to the urbanization process,since a large number of young labor force left the country to the city.Simple regression equation shows that the urbanization rate can effectively explain rural aging level.At the same time,the floating population declines the urban population aging degree which indirectly proved that urbanization promotes the rural aging.Found by further analysis of the demographic conditions of population aging,the natural aging rate remained stable in rural area.With the increase of floating population,however,urbanization has become the main driving force of rural aging.Resolving the rural aging issues,in addition to continue to improve rural security system,we have to make the floating population to settle down in the city.Otherwise it will continue to repeat this situation that young people replace older to enter the city and the older floating population return to the countryside.