中国经济转型与增长

本文从4个方面、以19个指标为基础构造了衡量中国经济转型(即经济体制市场化进程)的制度变量——市场化相对指数,从该指数的数据特征和图形分析的结果看,新构建的指数较好地描绘了中国经济体制的市场化进程。在此基础上,本文将该市场化指数作为制度变量,运用协整理论和动态建模方法建立了一个经济增长的动态分析模型,实证研究的结果证实了1978～2003年间经济体制的市场化改革确实促进了中国经济增长,同时也证实了资本和劳动仍然是经济增长的主要因素,该模型较好地模拟了市场化改革影响下中国经济增长的变化规律。虽然将经济制度视为外生因素的研究方法具有一定的局限性,但是对于丰富传统经济增长理论,体现经济转型对增长的影响仍具有重要的理论意义和实践价值。

China's Economic Transformation and Growth

Considering four aspects and based on 19 indexes, we have constructed the system variables of China's economic transformation (i.e. the marketization course of China's economic system)-the relative indexes of marketization. From the characteristics of the data of the said indexes and from the result of graphic analysis, it can be seen that our newly built indexes have better depicted the commercialization process of China's economic setup. On this basis, taking commercialization indexes as institutional variables and applying the co-integration theory and the dynamic construction model, we have constructed a dynamic analytic model of economic pattern. Our case study has proved that, during the period of 1978 to 2003, the marketization reform in economic setup did spur China's economic growth, and that capital and labor are the main factors for economic growth; the said model simulates in a better way the law of change in the economic growth of China under the influence of the commercialization reform. Although the research method that treats economic institution as an exterior factor has some limitations, it is of theoretic significance and practical importance to enriching traditional economic growth theories and to showing the impact of economic institutional transformation upon economic growth.