The Impact of HIV/AIDS on Adult Mortality in Zimbabwe

In June 2000, an estimated 25 percent of adults in Zimbabwe were living with HIV/AIDS. Statistical data on the impact of the epidemic, though problematic in many ways, are better for Zimbabwe than for many other countries in sub‐Saharan Africa. This analysis presents estimates of adult mortality in Zimbabwe based on multiple sources, including registered deaths adjusted for incomplete reporting, estimated at approximately 50 percent. Comparison of estimates from different data sources shows that they are subject to substantial errors. At the same time, the estimates leave no doubt that adult mortality risks in Zimbabwe more than doubled between 1982 and 1997. The evidence that this rise is due to AIDS deaths is circumstantial, but very strong; there is no credible competing explanation.