美元贬值与我国物价走势关联性的实证分析

研究自2002年以来美元贬值与我国反映物价走势的居民消费价格指数(CPI)的波动率之间的关系。用协整分析和格兰杰因果检验发现,美元贬值直接影响我国部分原材料的进口价格和我国的CPI,从而使我国此轮物价上涨具有明显的输入型和结构型特征。据此给出了应对此次物价上涨的政策性建议:一方面中央政府应加强宏观调控力度;另一方面,要注重经济增长方式的转变,应由粗放型增长逐步向集约型增长转变;同时应选择适当时机,调整人民币汇率。人民币升值可以抵消国际原材料价格上升带来的成本冲击,从而降低国内通货膨胀压力。

On the Relationship between the Devaluation of US Dollars and the Price Fluctuation in China

The authors of this paper have studied the relationship between the devaluation of US dollars and the fluctuation of CPI. Through our analysis, the devaluation of US dollars has direct effects on our import of some raw materials and our CPI. Thus, the rising price this time has its import and structural traits. The authors suggest that the Central Government should tighten its macro-control, economy development should rely on the intensive model rather than the extensive model, and at the right time, adjust the exchange rate of Renmingbi to offset the rising cost of imported raw materials and ease the pressure of the inflation in China.