中国环境污染的波动性研究

环境污染的波动性是制定环境政策的重要依据。通过改进的实际经济周期（RBC）模型探讨中国环境污染波动性问题。研究发现:一是中国环境污染的波动性是高度顺周期，与产出波动相关性较强；二是技术进步、环境规制、投资专有技术、消费偏好和劳动供给冲击可以解释大部分中国环境污染的周期波动；三是技术进步和投资专有技术对环境污染产生了持续的正向冲击，而环境规制、消费偏好和劳动供给对环境污染产生了负向冲击，其中，环境规制冲击的持续时间较短，消费偏好的冲击仅在期初为正，长期为负，劳动供给冲击的持续时间较长。因此，在环境污染波动下，推动绿色技术进步、引导绿色消费、增加劳动人口供给等是抑制污染的有效途径。

An Analysis of Environmental Pollution Periodic Fluctuation in China —Based on a RBC Model

The fluctuation of environmental pollution is an important basis for making environmental policies. Based on the improved real business cycle (RBC) model, this paper discusses the fluctuation of environmental pollution in China. The results show that: first, the fluctuation of environmental pollution is highly pro-cyclical in China, which has a strong correlation with output fluctuation; Secondly, the shocks of technological progress, environmental regulation, investment proprietary technology, consumption preference and labor supply can explain most of the cyclical fluctuation of environmental pollution in China; Third, technological progress and investment proprietary technology have a sustained positive impact on environmental pollution, while environmental regulation, consumption preference and labor supply have a negative impact on environmental pollution. Among them, the impact of environmental regulation lasts for a short time, the impact of consumption preference is only positive at the beginning and negative for a long time, and the impact of labor supply lasts for a long time. Therefore, under the fluctuation of environmental pollution, promoting green technology progress, guiding green consumption and increasing the supply of labor force are effective ways to curb pollution.