中国氢能技术发展现状与未来展望

氢能，作为清洁能源载体，将在应对气候变化中发挥重要作用。但由于氢能产业链长、技术多元化，“氢能热”的背后存在重复建设、无序规划等隐患，不利于氢能产业高质量可持续发展。通过梳理氢气制取、氢气储运和氢气使用三个环节的技术发展及成本特征，对比不同技术的优缺点，为氢能技术选择提供参考。通过文献计量法，对比全球、中国和美国在氢能制取、氢能储运和氢燃料电池技术领域的发展水平，为行业发展布局提供参考，并分析氢能在不同领域形成技术竞争力的时间。研究发现:氢气制取中短期内仍以化石能源制氢为主，到2030年之后，制氢文献研究渐近饱和期，可再生能源制氢可望与化石能源制氢在成本上形成竞争力。氢气储运方式多元化，需根据运输距离和输氢体量选择合适的输氢方式。在研究方面，需加强氢液化、固态储氢和有机溶液储氢技术的突破，相关文献研究将于2027年左右进入饱和期。氢气在工业、交通业、电热供应行业均有应用前景和减排潜力，但其渗透率取决于技术成本和与其他低碳技术的竞争力。最后，结合中国氢能发展现状与未来趋势，为推动中国氢能行业均衡、高水平发展提出政策建议。

Current Development and Prospect of Hydrogen Energy Technology in China

Hydrogen energy, as a carrier of clean energy, which will play an important role in addressing climate change, has attracted wide attention in recent years. However, due to the long industry chain and technology diversification of hydrogen energy, there are potential risks of redundant constructions and disorderly planning behind “the trend of hydrogen energy”, which is unfavorable for the high-quality and sustainable development of hydrogen energy industry. In this paper, technological and economic features of various technologies in hydrogen production, hydrogen storage and transportation and hydrogen utilization were presented, and the advantages and disadvantages of different technologies were compared, providing a reference for the selection of hydrogen energy technologies. The development progress of hydrogen production, hydrogen storage and transportation and hydrogen fuel cell technologies in all countries, China and the United States was compared to provide reference for industry development via bibliometric method, and the schedules of when hydrogen energy technologies will become competitive in different fields were analyzed. The result shows that hydrogen production from fossil fuels would be the main hydrogen source in a short to medium term. Literature research on hydrogen production would get into the saturation period after 2030. At that time, hydrogen production from renewable energy is expected to compete economically with hydrogen production from fossil fuels. Hydrogen storage and transportation methods are diversified, so an appropriate hydrogen transportation mode should be determined by transportation distance and hydrogen volume. As for scientific research, it is necessary to make breakthroughs in the field of hydrogen liquefaction, solid hydrogen carrier and liquid organic hydrogen carrier, and relevant literature research would enter the saturation period at around 2027. Hydrogen has application prospect and emission reduction potential in industry, transportation, and electric heating supply, but its permeability depends on its technology costs and competitiveness with other low-carbon technologies. At last, based on the current and future development trend of hydrogen energy technologies in China, some policy proposals were put forward to promote the well-balanced and high-quality development of hydrogen energy industry in China.