中国要素配置与人力资本错配效应的分行业测算分析

中国创新驱动的新增长模式实质上是人才驱动，关键是在结构性存量调整和结构性改革变迁的宏观战略中、在解决要素错配过程中纠正人力资本错配。利用中国2004—2017年19个行业面板数据，构建劳动力质量指数测度细分行业人力资本存量，演绎Aoki生产函数核算框架测算人力资本错配程度、方向和演进趋势，并分解研究其对全要素生产率（Total Factor Productivity，TFP）的影响。研究发现:中国人力资本错配程度整体改善且呈结构性变化趋势，其中第二产业和第三产业传统服务业人力资本配置普遍不足，生产性服务业人力资本稀缺和过剩并存，公共服务业凸显人力资本配置过度；分解研究得出:要素配置效率是TFP增长率的重要组成部分且在新常态转型期面临新的“配置瓶颈”。

Factor Allocation and Accounting on Industrial Human Capital Misallocation Effect in China

China's new growth model of innovation-driven is essentially talent driven. The key is to correct the misallocation of human capital (HC) in the macro-strategy of structural stock adjustment and structural reform change, and in the process of solving the misallocation of resource factors. Based on panel data of 19 industries in China from 2004 to 2017, this paper constructed a labor quality index to measure the stock of HC in subdivided industries, and derived Aoki accounting framework to measure the degree, direction and evolution trend of HC misallocation, as well as the impact of decomposition on total factor productivity (TFP). The results show that the misallocation degree of human capital in China is improving on the whole and showing a trend of structural change. Among them, the allocation of human capital in traditional services of secondary and tertiary industries is generally insufficient. The human capital in producer services coexists with scarcity and surplus, and the human capital in public services is overallocation. It is concluded that factor allocative efficiency is an important part of TFP growth rate and faces a new "allocation bottleneck" in the transition period of the new normal.