经济政策不确定性与长期并购绩效

并购是改善资源配置、转变发展方式的重要途径，研究经济政策不确定性与并购的关系有助于充分理解并购在经济建设中发挥的作用。以2011—2016年上市公司并购事件为研究样本，深入探究经济政策不确定性对企业并购的长期绩效产生的影响。实证研究结果表明:经济政策不确定性越强的时期，主并方并购后的长期市场反应越不理想，显著为负；机制检验发现，经济政策不确定性越强，并购双方越倾向于不签订业绩承诺，进而带来并购长期市场反应的降低；调节效应分析发现，管理层持股会缓解经济政策不确定性对并购长期市场反应的消极影响，而融资约束会加剧经济政策不确定性对并购长期市场反应的消极影响。研究结论表明，经济政策不确定性是影响长期并购绩效的重要因素，如何选择合理的并购交易时机、设计有效的业绩承诺，对于发挥并购重组在资源整合中的重要作用、持续优化市场经济结构具有一定的参考意义。

The Economic Policy Uncertainty and Long-term Performance of M&As

M&As are important to improve resource allocation and transform development models. Research on the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and performance of M&As is useful for economic development. This paper uses M&As of listed companies during 2011—2016 as a sample to deeply explore the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the long-term performance of M&As. The results showed that the stronger economic policy uncertainty, the worse the long-term market reaction after M& As. The mechanism test found that with the economic policy uncertainty growing, the possibility of signing a performance commitment agreement was decreasing, which reduced the long-term market reaction to M&As. In the further analysis, it could be seen that management shareholdings would alleviate the negative impact of economic policy uncertainty on the long-term market reaction to M&As, while high degree of financing constraints could aggravate the negative impact of economic policy uncertainty on the long-term market reaction to M&As. The results showed that economic policy uncertainty is an important factor that affects the long-term market reaction to M&As. How to choose a reasonable timing of M&As and design effective performance commitments are important for M&As’ significance in resource integration and continuously optimizing the market economy structure.