股价变化对消费影响的实证分析

如何扩大我国居民的有效需求一直是各界普遍关注的问题。运用1999年1月到2003年12月的月度数据,采用生命周期模型对股价变化对消费的影响进行了实证分析。结果表明,股价变化对消费具有显著的影响,我国股票市场确实存在财富效应。运用扩展的生命周期模型,我们进一步证实了我国居民消费存在明显的误差修正行为。由于居民消费对财富变化的调整是渐进的,所以要充分发挥股市对需求的拉动作用,必须持续采取积极的股市政策。

Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Changes in Stock Prices on Consumption

How to expand the effective demands of domestic residents has received increased attention among both academic researchers and policymakers.We provide an empirical analysis of the impact of changes in stock prices on consumption by using the life cycle model for the period from January 1999 to December 2003.Empirical results show that the impact of changes in stock prices on consumption is significant and there is wealth effect in Chinese stock market.Adopting a extension form of life cycle model,we further confirm that consumers' spending exhibits a error correction-type behavior.Since the adjustment of consumption to changes in wealth tend to be gradually,thus persistent encouraging policies must be taken to fully exert the function of stock market effects on boosting demands.