我国老年照料服务体系构建及需求量预测——以上海为例

快速老龄化和独生子女家庭结构给我国老年照料服务带来严峻挑战,文章拟构建一个以家庭和社区为基础的照料服务体系来应对这一问题,并对其服务压力进行预测。将五种照料资源整合成为六种可以流转的照料模式,形成完整的照料体系,并采用中国健康与养老追踪调查数据(CHARLS)估算老年人口对每种照料模式的需求比例,加入独生子女政策的影响,以上海为例模拟老年照料服务需求量和结构的变化趋势。结果显示,上海老年照料服务需求总量在2020年前会经历一个快速增长阶段,相对于传统的养老体系,新体系的发展使养老和护理床位需求量分别减少约70%和75%。

Elderly Care System Construction and Demand Forecast

Repaid aging and one-child family structure bring about severe challenges to elderly care services.This paper aims at constructing a family and community based elderly care system to deal with this problem.By combining five nursing resources to form six dynamic care modes,an integrated elderly care system is established.Demand proportions of elderly for each mode are then estimated using database CHARLS.The influence of one-child policy is added to simulate the trend of amount and structure of elderly care demand in the coming twenty years taking Shanghai as an example.The result shows that the total amount of elderly care demand in Shanghai will experience a repaid growth phase before 2020,but the possibility of family providing elderly care will decline obviously.Compared with the traditional elderly care system,the system established in this paper will cut down the demand of nursing and care beds for about 75% and 70% respectively.