论计划生育政策的完善与调整——基于公共政策视角

我国妇女生育率已经稳定在更替水平之下20多年且将持续运行。文章从公共政策视角出发探究在低生育水平下未来生育政策和计划生育工作的取向,研究结果认为计划生育政策和计划生育工作的积极效用是值得肯定的。但是,在新的人口形势下必须对其进行改革。从公共政策效用来看,现有严格的计划生育政策对于其他公共政策需求压力增大,带来一系列较高的执行成本,需要适时对其进行调整和完善,把握好公共政策的整体性和预见性,使计划生育工作和政策可以发挥积极的引导和激励作用,促进和实现人口的长期均衡发展。

The Recognition of the Family Planning Policy from the Public Policy Perspective

The sixth China Population Census data shows that Chinese women’s TFR was between 1.5 to 1.7 in the last decade and it will maintain in the future.To be sure,the TFR will be far low in the replacement level,therefore,this paper explore the tendency of the family planning policy and family planning work orientation in the low birth level from public policy perspective.The conclusion is that family planning policy and its effectiveness are positive.However,the public policy has implemented for more than forty years and the negative effection is gradually appearing.From the utility of public policy perspective,the disadvantages are becoming worse and worse.Strict one-child policy gives high pressure to other public policies and brings a series of high execution cost.Therefore the government should adjust it in time,grasp the integrity and the foresight of the public policy,make the family planning work and policy play a positive role in guiding and incentives,and promote and achieve the long-term equilibrium population development.