国际关系和对外政策研究中的预测

国际关系和对外政策的研究中经常存在"预测困境",学者们往往热衷对国际关系和对外政策的未来走向进行预测,但预测结果常常不尽如人意。通过调研发现,预测不仅在国际关系和对外政策研究中占有重要地位,也在实践中发挥重要作用,但国内外对这一领域的相关研究仍需进一步完善和发展。本文首先界定了预测的基本概念,然后在分析预测的可行性基础上,通过建立预测系统模型图来阐述预测的基本原理,最后通过案例分析法对减少预测失误的途径进行分析探讨。

Forecasting in International Relations and Foreign Policy Studies

The reality of international relations and foreign policy studies is replete with the "Predicament of Prediction": scholars are eager for predicting the future of international relations and foreign policy,but the results of these predictions are unsatisfactory.This predicament arouses the interest of studying the issue of forecast.Through research we find that,forecast not only occupies an important position in international relations and foreign policy studies,but also plays an important role in actual practice,but the research of this field both at home and abroad still needs further improvement.We first define the basic concept of forecast,and then analyze the feasibility of forecast.On the basis of establishing the Model of Forecast System,we elaborate on the basic principles of forecast.Finally,with the help of case study,we analyze the reasons for errors in prediction and discuss the ways of reducing the errors.