贸易总额与贸易差额的增加值统计研究

全球化发展促进了可贸易品生产链向世界延伸，出口品价值由不同生产模块上的不同国家组成，这直接导致以国为单位的传统通关统计，无法正确反映国际产品分工链条中各国的实际价值创造。对折返增加值部分的重复计算不仅夸大了发展中国家的实际贸易顺差同时也夸大了发达国家的贸易逆差。通过将增加值法引入国际贸易核算体系，本文发现：2002年和2007年，增加值统计的我国贸易总额分别低于通关统计贸易总额的14.1%和20.5%；增加值统计的我国贸易顺差分别低于通关统计贸易顺差的20.3%和24.9%。利用新方法对国际贸易中的国内、国外增加值进行分解，其重要意义不仅在于能从微观角度纠正传统的通关统计对双边贸易平衡真实性的误判，还可以从开放宏观角度避免这种误判可能给予实际汇率以错误的权重，使汇率成为矛盾的焦点。

The Gross Value Statistics and Value Added Statistics of the Trade Flows and Trade Surplus

The development of globalization promotes the extension of the production chain of tradable goods, the value of exports are organized by different countries and different production modules, which leads to the statistics of the customs methods cannot get the value added in the global production chains correctly. The double counting exhumation of value-added will make the processing trade surplus overestimated and distort the degree of trade imbalance, especially for the developing countries. By using the value-added methods, this paper re-estimates the surplus for China and compares the change of these two methods. We find that, the trade flow and surplus accounted by the customs methods are larger than the value-added method, which was increasing from 14.1% and 20.3% in 2002 to 20.5% and 24.9% in 2007, respectively. The importance for improving the customs based on statistics methods of international trade is not only to correct the misjudgment of the real external imbalance for the county, but also can avoid giving the wrong weight in estimating the real exchange rate and reduce the disputes.