中国蔬菜价格波动与通货膨胀——基于波动来源的分解

利用Census X12季节调整和H-P滤波法,将蔬菜价格波动来源分解为趋势变动、季节变动、循环变动和不规则变动要素。利用Bootstrap因果检验与VAR模型,考察了蔬菜价格波动来源的分解因素与中国通货膨胀的关联性。结果表明,蔬菜价格波动影响消费者物价指数的主要渠道是通过季节变动和不规则变动要素;季节变动因素对消费者物价指数的影响呈季节周期性;不规则变动对消费者物价指数的冲击在最初时最显著,随后逐渐减弱。政策含义为,降低公众的通胀预期、促进蔬菜跨区域流通、控制蔬菜运输的物流成本、健全政府灾害天气应急响应机制均有利于减缓CPI上涨。

Vegetable Price Fluctuation and Inflation in China -Based on Decomposition of Vegetable Price Fluctuation

Using the method of Census X12 seasonal adjustment and H-P filter,the source of vegetable price fluctuation is decomposed into four components, namely trend factor, seasonal factor, cyclical factor and irregular component. Based on bootstrap granger causality test and VAR model, this paper examines the relationship between the above components and inflation in China. The result shows that, vegetable price fluctuation mainly impacts on CPI through seasonal factor and irregular component. Furthermore,seasonal factor impacts on CPI with seasonal periodicity. The impact of irregular component on CPI is the most significant at early stage, but then decreases gradually. The policy implication is that in order to control the rise of CPI,it is important to reduce inflation expectation, promote cross-regional circulation,reduce logistics cost and improve natural disaster management system.