负债水平对家庭经济脆弱性的影响

家庭经济脆弱性反映了居民家庭可能陷入财政危机的状态，在经济不确定性较高的当下，中国居民家庭应对风险的能力有待进一步加强。基于2017年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)微观数据，实证检验了家庭负债对经济脆弱性的影响及其作用机制。研究发现：负债规模扩张显著提升了家庭经济的脆弱性，资产负债率每增加1个标准差，家庭经济危机发生的概率约增加0.91个百分点。居民健康状况、应急储蓄在负债与家庭经济的脆弱性之间发挥中介作用，即家庭负债的增加，会导致户主健康状况恶化，降低家庭应急储蓄水平，从而加剧其经济脆弱性。异质性检验结果表明，相对于城镇家庭，农村家庭更容易受到金融排斥，其应对风险冲击的能力更差，家庭经济脆弱性更高；同时，领取政府补助和拥有多套住房的家庭应对风险的能力更强，家庭经济脆弱性更低。因此，政府应当重视引导居民家庭合理负债，构建更加完善的健康服务体系，必要时提供适当的应急储蓄，以提升居民家庭的总体福利水平。

The Impact of Debt Level on Household Economic Vulnerability

Household economic vulnerability is an indicator of a family''s capability to cope with crisis situations. Under the circumstance of economic uncertainties today, more efforts are needed to improve the Chinese families'' capability to withstand risks. Based on the micro cross-sectional data of China Household Finance Survey in 2017, this paper empirically tests the impact of household debt on economic vulnerability of Chinese families. The results show that household debt significantly increases the economic vulnerability of families. Specifically, the probability of household economic vulnerability increases by 0.91 percentage points when the household asset-liability ratio increases by one standard deviation. The health of family members and emergency savings play a mediating role between household debt and family economic vulnerability. Put it differently, household debt increase tends to worsen the health of household heads, reduce household emergency savings, and increase household economic vulnerability. Heterogeneity test shows that rural households are more vulnerable to financial exclusion compared with urban households. They are more exposed to economic vulnerability since their capability to withstand risks and shocks is generally weaker. Meanwhile, households receiving government subsidies or owning more than one apartment tend to exhibit stronger capability to cope with risks. Correspondingly, they generally face lower level of economic vulnerability. The results show that the government should pay more attention to the household debt issue and encourage the public to maintain the level of household debt within a reasonable limit. Meanwhile, the government should also put in place a sound healthcare system and provide appropriate emergent savings when necessary in order to improve the overall welfare of Chinese families.