我国农产品波动分析

我国农产品波动分析罗建国ＡＢＳＴＲＡＣＴＴｈｉｓｐａｐｅｒｓｙｓｔｅｍａｔｉｃａｌｙｓｔａｔｅｓｔｈｅｆｅａｔｕｒｅａｎｄｔｈｅｍｅｃｈａｎｉｓｍｏｆｆｌｕｃｔｕａｔｉｏｎｏｆｍａｉｎａｇｒｉｃｕｌｔｕｒａｌｐｒｏｄｕｃｔｓ，ｆｏｒｅｃａｓｔｓｉｔｓ...

Analysis on the Fluctuation of Agricultural Products in China

This paper systematically states the feature and the mechanism of fluctuation of main agricultural products, forecasts its situation in 1996 and puts forward the countermeasures to smooth and control fluctuation. The author holds that three main features of agricultural products fluctuation exist in our country, i.e. :(a) fluctuation are mainly dominated by production supplies with high frequencies and big margin, a cycle of about four years; (b) fluctuational factors are mainly composed of input one and natural one, the largest output elasticity is sown area; (c) the conduction of fluctuational factors are embodied in those of the output mainly influenced by sown area, disaster area, animal numbers, and market price.