基于MCMC稳态模拟的异质性经济增长模型研究

 针对同质性增长模型无法描述各个经济体经济增长存在的异质性现象，提出了一类基于MCMC稳态模拟的异质性经济增长模型，它可以用来描述经济增长的异质性以及政策变量的差异影响。由于模型参数的后验条件分布没有确定的分布形式，通过数据扩充得到参数的完全条件分布从而实现模型参数的贝叶斯估计。对改革开放以来我国各省市区经济增长收敛性进行分析发现大规模股份制改革前经济增长具有同质性而大规模股份制改革后经济增长具有异质性，且可以用新古典经济增长理论来解释各地区经济的发展状况。

Modeling the Heterogeneity of Economic Growth via MCMC Simulation

The homogeneous growth theory does not support the possibility that economies follow the different growth paths. This paper proposed the heterogeneous growth models which can capture systematic influences of policy variables on the location, scale and shape of the conditional distribution of the GDP growth rates. The models were estimated via Gibbs sampler with data augmentation by a mixture of standard exponential distribution and standard normal distribution to represent the asymmetric Laplace distribution. Bayesian inference revealed effective in our application to the GDP growth rates of every province in China after the reform and opening-up, the results show that there exist homogeneity of growth before the shareholding system reform on an enlarged scale but not after that. The findings support that the underlying growth model for cross-provinces is of neoclassical growth type.