| Abstract: | Has the business environment grown in uncertainty? In this paper the authors suggest that the root problem is not uncertainty but the malevolence of events these past few years. In turn, this has made uncertainty and the techniques developed to cope with its consequences all the more important to the firm. But while improved forecasting may take the difference between a potentially profitable project and corporate disaster, good forecasting by itself is not enough. Most firms would benefit from examining their forecasting performance in relation to strategic decisionmaking and the various options available. The authors conclude that only in an organization where integration between expert forecaster and forecast user has been achieved can the full benefits of improved forecasting be realized. |
