房价波动对我国城镇居民消费的影响研究

 本文将房价、住房面积、消费习惯及借贷约束等变量引入消费者最优选择模型中，构建出在综合考虑各个因素的条件下，能够检验房价波动对居民消费影响的动态面板模型，运用动态系统广义矩阵方法，采用我国29个省市的年度数据进行多角度的实证分析。研究显示:(1)我国城镇居民受到较强消费习惯与收入敏感性的影响；(2)房价波动对居住消费的影响为负，对非居住消费的影响为正，且均存在明显的非对称性;(3)中东西地区房价波动对居住消费的影响均为负，但影响系数差异较大；对非居住消费的影响差异就更为明显，东西部地区影响为正，中部地区为负。分析也表明，我国城镇高房价收入比、地区经济发展不平衡及居民收入差距的不断拉大是导致实证结果的主要原因。

The Research on Influences of House Price Fluctuation on the Urban Residents Consumption in China

By introducing housing price, housing area, consumption habit and borrowing constraints into the standard consumer optimization model, and constructing a dynamic panel model, we can test the house price fluctuation on consumption. Using the model and the annual data of the 29 provinces and cities in our country, the results show that(1)Urban residents are affected strongly by the consumption habit and income sensitivity; (2)The influence of house price fluctuation is negative on living consumption, and positive on non-living consumption, and all show obviously asymmetry;(3) In different areas, the influences of house price fluctuation on living consumption are all negative, but the coefficients are obviously different, the difference of influences on the non-living consumption is more apparent, the influence is positive in the eastern and western regions, whereas the central region is the negative. Furthermore, Analysis also indicates that, high housing price/income ratio, imbalance development of regional economic and the widening income gap are the main reasons which caused the empirical results.