碳交易政策对电煤供应链利润及碳排放量影响的仿真分析

针对由一个供应商和一个生产商组成的二级电煤供应链，分析该链上的生产、运输和消费三个主要碳排放环节，构建碳交易政策下电煤供应链全过程碳排放的系统动力学仿真模型。以神华集团X煤炭企业-Y电厂组成的电煤供应链为例，研究不同碳交易政策对该供应链及各节点企业利润及减排效果的影响。结果表明：电煤供应链上生产、运输和消费环节碳排放量占总碳排放量的平均份额分别为12.1%、39.6%和48.3%；碳交易价格越高，对电煤供应链及各节点企业利润的负面影响越大，其减排效果先增后减；随着免费配额比例的下降，电煤供应链上各节点企业利润明显减少，其减排效果略有提高；碳交易补贴可减缓电煤供应链及各节点企业利润下降，并且可有效地提升其减排效果。

Effects of Carbon Trading Policies on Profit and Carbon Emission of Electric-coal Supply Chain Based on Simulation Analysis

Two-layer electric-coal supply chain (ECSC) consisting of one supplier and one manufacturer is studied. The carbon emission processes of the ECSC comprising of coal production, transportation and consumption are established using system dynamics model, and impacts of different carbon trading policies on profit and carbon emission of ECSC are analyzed. The ECSC of X Coal Industry and Y power plant in Shenhua Group is taken as case study, and the results show that:first, the average share of carbon emissions in production, transportation and consumption of ECSC is 12.1%, 39.6% and 48.3%, respectively; second, the higher the price of carbon trading, the larger negative impact on profit of ECSC, and the carbon reduction effect increased first and then decreased; third, with the decline in the proportion of free quotas, the profit of the ECSC is significantly reduced, while the emission reduction effect is slightly improved; finally, carbon trading subsidies could mitigate the decline in profit of ECSC, and could effectively enhance the emission reduction effect.