新常态下货币供给对工业经济的非对称冲击——兼论冲击路径的情景设计与分析

货币政策冲击对工业产出和价格的非对称影响，是新常态下把握好货币供给政策的方向、力度和节奏的重要参考依据，有助于提升货币供给政策的针对性、灵活性和前瞻性。局部投影方法在不同区制下，计算工业产出和价格对货币供给冲击的脉冲响应结果表明：货币供给冲击对工业产出的影响具有不确定性，且总体上表现为中性特征；而货币供给冲击对工业价格的影响不仅在不同区制下，而且在新常态前后均表现出显著的差异性和非对称性，总体来说是短期有效，长期中性的。情景设计的分析结果显示新常态下采用增加货币供给的政策来刺激工业经济是不可取的，其作用效果可能出现工业产出停滞不前，工业价格急剧飙升的工业滞胀。因此，需要从工业产业升级，工业技术创新等工业供给侧寻求工业经济新的增长点和动力机制。

The Asymmetric Shock of Monetary Supply on Industry Economic Under the New Normal: Concurrently Discuss of Scenario Design and Analysis of the Shock Path

The asymmetric effects of monetary policy shocks to industrial output and price has great influence in the direction, intensity and rhythm of macroeconomic policy, and could improve the pertinency, flexibility and forward-ooking of monetary supply policy. The local projection is used to calculate the response of industrial output and price to monetary supply shocks under different regime of industrial output, price and money supply. The empirical results show that the influence of monetary supply shock to industrial output is uncertain, and has a neutral characteristic overall. The scenario analysis also confirms the above conclusion. There is an asymmetric impact of money supply on the industrial price, not only under different regime of the variables, but also before and after the new normal. The overall performance is that the shock has an effect on short-term, which is however invalid in a long-term. The results of scenario designing and analysis show that the use of monetary policy to stimulate normal under the new normal is not desirable, Its impact on the industrial output growth is uncertain and neutral, while it has a significantly positive influence on the industrial prices growth. The possible outcomes is industrial stagflation, which is the industrial output stagnated, while industrial prices soaring. Therefore, a new growth point and mechanism need to be found from the supply side of industrial, such as industrial upgrading, industrial technology innovation and other actions.