基于交互式迭代算法的中国碳减排目标分配研究

众所周知，温室气体的大量排放会引起气候变化和全球变暖等环境问题。其中，二氧化碳作为影响最大的温室气体，主要产生于人类活动。应对气候变化需要来自于全球各个国家的共同行动与努力。作为经济高速发展的发展中国家，中国已于近几年成为世界最大的能耗国和碳排放国。为积极应对温室效应，中国政府计划采取强有力的政策措施，实现节能减排并逐步建立全国碳交易市场。为确保应对气候变化国家方案的切实贯彻实施，如何将全国碳减排目标在各省份间进行合理分配，至关重要。在效率分析的理论框架下，借助于方向性距离函数评价含有非期望产出（碳排放）的绩效表现，在此基础之上提出一种交互式迭代算法，合理有效地将全国碳减排总目标分摊为各省级目标。结果表明，受到地理环境、经济状况、产业结构等因素的共同影响，不同区域相应承担不同水平的减排任务。绝大部分沿海发达地区的省份和直辖市需要大幅减少碳排放量，而中西部经济区则期望减排比例较小。分摊结果不仅显示了方法的有效性和易操作性，也针对各典型区域如何推进可持续发展提供了启发性建议。

A Study on Disaggregating China's National Carbon-reduction Target based on Interactive Iterations

Greenhouse gas emissions are supposed to lead to global warming and climate change, among which carbon dioxide is the most significant one generated by humans. Tackling this issue requires global action and joint efforts from all over the world. As a high-speed developing country, China has become the world's largest energy-consumer and the biggest carbon-dioxide producer. In order to take an active role in fighting global warming, China intends to cut carbon emissions by a remarkable percentage, and to establish the national market for trading carbon emissions. Under the frame of efficiency analysis, the directional distance function (DDF) is used to evaluate performance with undesirable outputs, and an iterative procedure is further developed to disagg regate China's national reduction target of carbon emissions at the provincial level. The results indicate that different provincial regions tend to share different levels of reduction target depending on their geographical features, economic conditions and industrial structures. Most provinces and municipalities located in the more economic-developed coastal areas should substantially lower carbon emissions. In contrast, economic zones in central and west China demonstrate a much smaller decreasing scale. Thirty provincial regions are further classified into four clusters jointly by economic development and carbon emissions. With respect to each cluster, a detailed discussion is given in its current development status, as well as some instructive suggestions on an eco-friendly and sustainable development.