居民预期影响货币政策传导的实验研究

作为微观主体的居民,在货币政策传导机制中发挥着重要的作用。基于居民预期难以量化的特征,采用实验经济学的方法,从心理预期的角度研究居民的消费和投资行为。实验结果表明,在我国社会保障制度不健全的特有国情下,居民预期在很大程度上支配着其消费和投资行为,从而严重阻碍着货币政策传导的最终效果。因此,为了进一步完善我国货币政策传导机制的效果,必须高度重视居民预期的影响作用,针对居民预期的异质性,从完善我国社会保障制度等方面合理引导居民预期。

An Experimental Study on the Influence of Residents' Expectation upon Monetary Policy Transmission

As a microeconomic subject,residents play an important role in monetary policy transmission mechanism.Due to the feature of residents' expectation difficult to quantify,with the method of experimental economics,resident's consumption and investment behaviors are studied from the perspective of psychological expectation.The result shows that residents' expectation dominates the consumption and investment behaviors to a large extent under China's current unique situation that the social security system does n...