受雇农民工数量和工资的变化趋势研究

受雇农民工是农民工中数量最庞大但很少被专门研究的基本群体，其数量和工资的估计受到既有农民工数量和工资调查研究中统计口径不一致的困扰。以微观数据为基础的一致统计口径可以纵向连贯、横向可比地考察受雇农民工数量与工资的变化趋势。研究发现：（1）外出农民工数量已从增长阶段进入基本稳定阶段，其内因是农村劳动年龄人口不断减少，这是城市化和市民化的必然结果。（2）受雇农民工数量总体上虽略有增加，但也已进入相对稳定阶段，而且青年农民工（35周岁以下）的比重在逐年下滑。（3）受雇农民工工资水平虽有显著上涨，但与城镇职工的相对差距却有所扩大。（4）学历工资的阶梯状分布在大专及以上学历阶段呈现跳跃性，且这种跳跃性仍有扩大倾向。研究结果揭示了农民工群体内部的结构性分化，同时也表明了农民工市民化的复杂性和现实困难性。

Quantity and Wage Trends of Employed Migrant Workers

After many years of development since the reform and opening up， migrant workers begin to have internal structural differences. For example， the income， capital and social network of the employed migrant workers are different from those of the self-employed migrant workers， and yet most of the researchers treat them as a whole. Meanwhile， a problem of statistical criteria inconsistencies has come into being in the current researches， which makes the data inconsistent both synchronically and diachronically， greatly reducing the information value of the data. So it is necessary to use consistent statistical criteria for structural analyses． Our definition of the employed migrant workers is based on a survey by the National Bureau of Statistics. The variation trend of the numbers and earnings of the employed migrant workers come from the National Rural Fixed Observation and China Statistical Yearbook. The main findings are as follows:（1） The number of migrant workers has stabilized， because the rising proportions of the migrant workers and the decreasing number of the rural working age population have reached a relative equilibrium. The underlying reason is that urbanization and citizenization have made the rural population decrease quickly. （2） The number of employed migrant workers has increased slowly and begins to become stable. On the background of the stable migrant workers， the increase of employed migrant workers is due to a higher proportion of employment， which has risen to a very high degree. On the other hand， rural depopulation continues. Therefore， the number of migrant employed workers will also be stable， and it will even reach a ″turning point．″ （3） The proportion of young employed migrant workers （under the age of 35） has been declining year by year. One reason is that the proportion of rural young population has been rapidly declining， and another reason is that young migrant workers have higher employment expectations， which increases their difficulty in finding jobs．（4） The earning of employed migrant workers has a significant rise and it will continue to increase， but their earnings are lower than the average of all the migrant workers. In addition， the relative gap between urban workers and employed migrant workers has not narrowed down， which makes the problem of inequality worse．（5） There is a significant earning gap between the one with a high school diploma and the one with a college degree， and the gap is still widening.  This paper provides relatively accurate information for studying employed migrant workers， and the findings contribute to a better understanding of the structure of the migrant workers. It is hoped that further researches will be carried out in this area．