中国上市公司股利政策稳定性的实证研究

运用Lintner经典模型,并采用混合回归方法对我国上市公司的股利政策的稳定性进行实证研究,发现与成熟资本市场的上市公司不同,我国上市公司股利支付取决于当年的盈余,与上年的股利支付无关,上市公司遵循不稳定的股利政策,融资制度差异是我国公司股利支付的不稳定的根本原因,盈余的不稳定等因素加剧了股利政策的不稳定。与成熟资本市场国家的股利政策信息内涵不同,我国上市公司股利政策变动并不反映企业未来盈余的变化,因此建议投资者在利用股利政策来决定投资决策时应慎用这些信息。

An Empirical Study on Instability in Dividend Policy of the List Corporations

The study examines the dividend policy stability of the list corporations by the Lintner model estimated by pooled regression.Unlike the empirical results of corporations operating in developed markets,the empirical results show that the list corporations follow unstable dividend policies in our country.The main factor of this instability is the differences of capital recruiting system between china and other developed countries.When making investment decision,investors should pay more care in using those dividend policy information.