生态税与社会就业：“双重红利假说”的视角

基于生态税"双重红利"假说的综合性税制改革是90年代以来各国政府和学术界关注的热点之一.针对中国当前环境问题和就业问题这两个突出矛盾,本文基于"双重红利"假说的思想,提出了一个局部均衡模型,就生态税对两者的影响进行了探讨,分析了其解决中国现实问题的预期效果和限制因素.本文的研究表明,生态税能否达到双重红利的效果与多个因素有关,特别是与企业所处行业的污染治理成本紧密相关,并不能一概而论,在政府征税能力不强,企业逃税比较普遍的环境下,政府的直接补贴未必能实现补贴的初衷.建议在引入法律意义上的生态税税种之前,先在一些地区或行业进行试点,基于我国实际状况的财税改革措施可能会有更好的实际效果.

Ecological Tax and Employment: An Analysis on the "Double Dividend" Hypothesis

The general fiscal levy reform based on Ecological tax is one focus for both governments and academic researchers since 1990s,which offers an enlightenment to us.There will be comprehensive effects for the society and economics for any tax reform.In this paper we propose a local equilibrium model based on "double dividend" hypothesis to deal with the environmental problem and employment problem.We analyze the effects of ecological tax on both environment protection and social employment.The model shows that the realization of "double dividend" is relevant to several factors,especially the industrial character of environmental protection.Under the weak tax levy and the prominent tax evasion,the government's direct subsidy may not realize its original target.So we suggest that it seems better to try out in certain areas or industries before putting in force universally.